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Emerging Alpha Eur-Asia

February 2016: Altaica EUR-Asia Emerging Fund: -0.48%

By | Emerging Alpha Eur-Asia

February 2016 was extreme. In the first weeks the tumble of the international markets continued. But unexpectedly the sentiment turned. First Turkey and later, more spectacularly, also Russia made a turnaround. During the month we took again a long position in Turkey and Russia. At the end of the month we added also China to the portfolio. Main driver for Russia is still the oil price. The price is stabilising and gaining strength. More and more analysts see the trend turning at the production side. The production is shrinking by the agreement between OPEC and Russia to stabilise the production and at the other side bankruptcies in the fracking industry of the USA. In the same time we don’t see…

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January 2016: Altaica Eur-Asia Emerging Fund: -10.69%

By | Emerging Alpha Eur-Asia

January 2016 was one of the worst January months ever in history. Worldwide developed equity markets went down by 5%, some stock markets even up to 10%. For emerging markets the suffering was even worse, especially China. Chinese markets lost almost 25%. For Russia it was also a difficult time: the fall of the oil price made the Rouble set a new record low against Euro and US Dollar. In the portfolio we halved our positions, however it was not enough to stabilize the portfolio. Much seems to depend now on the development of the oil price. This commodity seems to be critical for a positive sentiment on the emerging markets. At the end of the month the sentiment on…

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December 2015: Altaica Eur-Asia Emerging Fund: -7.15%

By | Emerging Alpha Eur-Asia

December was a terrible month for the Eur-Asian markets. The worst market was Russia that suffered from the combination of the troubled relationship with Turkey and the sharp decline of the oil price. This resulted in a fall of 16% of the MSCI Russia index. Partly by lower equity prices but mainly the Rouble suffered. For the Turkish markets it was also a difficult time. The Turkish equity market tumbled by 12%. Further to the east there was China fighting its own demons. The markets lost almost 10% in the first two weeks, then there was a sharpe recovery of again almost 10%, to fall again in the last week of the month. India was the most stable market, but…

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November 2015: Altaica EUR-Asia Emerging Fund: +0.90%

By | Emerging Alpha Eur-Asia

The shot down of the Russian jet by Turkey did have a huge impact. Russia announced a series of sanctions which will give a blow to the Turkish tourism industry. The nice performance of the first three week of the month melted away due to this accident. In the new week following on the last trading day of November the first signs of a cautious recovery are there. The strong uptrend in both markets is still untouched, so we keep confidence in our positions. Next to Turkey and Russia we faced also a serious correction of the Chinese markets on the end of the month. This after a strong recovery during the last months. A bad cocktail news was causing…

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October 2015: Altaica EUR-Asia Emerging Fund: -4.99%

By | Emerging Alpha Eur-Asia

We faced a bad month: high volatility and changing signals destroyed our performance. We started the month with a short positions in China and Turkey. During the month the signals for China, India and Turkey changed from sell to buy. On these kind of moments our positions are the most vulnerable. However we changed to long positions, halfway the month we recovered partly by rising markets. Last week we faced lower appetite for investing in Emerging Markets. Falling commodity prices hurt the Russian stock market and negative economic news from China was causing some damage to our China positions. This climate also caused pressure on the Indian and Turkish markets. Especially Turkey was volatile in the preparation to the elections…

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September 2015: Altaica EUR-Asia Emerging: -2.47%

By | Emerging Alpha Eur-Asia

September was a volatile month for the Emerging Markets. Until Tuesday the 29th the losses were significant and our short positions did their job. At that moment the fund outperformed the market with more than 5%.  At the moment we closed 50% of our China short positions. On the last day of the month the markets made an impressive rebound. Our benchmark, the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets UCITS gained 3,4%. The sharp recovery of the Emerging Markets hurted our short positions, on a monthly basis the fund and its benchmark obtained an equal result, -2,4%. Within the Eur-Asian markets Russia and Turkey made the most significant losses, both more than 4%, China lost also a 2,5% and India made even…

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Back in Moscow

By | Emerging Alpha Eur-Asia

Back in Moscow at the Prosperity Capital investors event. Impressed by the changes compared to one year ago. The changes are clearly visible on the streets, impressive new roads, pollution came down. People are even starting cycling, Moscovians are paying parking fees and adhere to sophisticated traffic rules. Economically a real revolution is going on due to strong new governance legislation. Next to this sanctions force the country to choose new economic development, agribusiness is growing impressively. Gas export development to China is much bigger as we can read in the western press. Pension funds are now allowed and stimulated to invest in stocks and corporate bonds. Equity investments are only 4% of the total invested assets of the Russian…

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August 2015: Altaica Emerging EUR-Asia Fund: -9,21%

By | Emerging Alpha Eur-Asia

The perfect storm hit the financial markets and especially the emerging markets. It all started with the devaluation of the Chinese Reminbi. This triggered the collapse of several emerging currencies. In the turmoil the Euro became safe haven. This was not the only problem China caused. The macro economic news has become worse and worse. A recession for China looks unavoidable. The mainland China index, CSI 300, lost more than 23% of its value. Next to the currencies we witnessed a tumbling oil price. For commodity countries like Russia this is a devastating development: halfway the month the losses on Russian Equity exceeded 22%. However at the end of the month there was also a sharp recovery of the oil…

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July 2015: Altaica EUR-Asia Emerging Fund: -1,82%

By | Emerging Alpha Eur-Asia

July was a volatile month. Our short position on the Turkey market became the best performing position in the fund, this only after the attack on a Turkish village, which started the involvement of Turkey in the war on IS. Together with the unrest resulting from the attack the instability in Turkish politics – no new government after the last elections – started the downturn of the Turkish market. The recovery program of the Chinese market authorities came effectively into force in July. The crash of the markets stopped and there was even a recovery. However, at the end of the month doubts about the sustainability of the support program in combination with a weakening macro economic environment destroyed the…

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By | Emerging Alpha Eur-Asia

We like to share today the opnion article, “INVISIBLE HAND” written by the Economic Commentator of The Telegraph, Liam Halligan. We respects the knowledge and involvement of Liam in Emerging Markets.   BUSINESS NEW EUROPE MAGAZINE, JULY 22ND 2015 OPINION: INVISIBLE HAND BY LIAM HALLIGAN  In early July, the leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa assembled in Ufa, around 700 miles east of Moscow, for the seventh annual Brics summit. Overshadowed by Europe’s currency imbroglio and China’s stock market nosedive – along with the usual plethora of summer sporting events – this diplomatic gathering in the Bashkirian capital deserved far more media attention than it got. Ufa was the most significant Brics summit since the first –…

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